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California Governor Gavin Newsom has announced a projected $12 billion budget deficit as the state prepares for a nearly $322 billion budget for the upcoming fiscal year. Rising Medicaid costs and economic uncertainties, including federal tariffs and stock market volatility, are significant contributors to this deficit. In response, Newsom plans to freeze enrollment in Medi-Cal for low-income adults without legal status and implement funding cuts across the higher education sector. The state legislature is tasked to finalize the budget by June 30, 2025, while navigating pressing needs amid ongoing budget challenges.

California Faces $12 Billion Budget Deficit

California Governor Gavin Newsom has revealed a substantial $12 billion budget deficit as the state prepares for the upcoming fiscal year, which features a proposed budget of nearly $322 billion. The governor has identified rising Medicaid expenditures along with economic uncertainties as significant contributing factors to this shortfall.

The higher-than-anticipated costs in Medicaid, which is known as Medi-Cal in California, have placed additional strain on the state’s finances. Newsom specifically pointed to the impacts of federal tariffs and fluctuations in the stock market that could adversely affect the state’s revenue, which heavily relies on taxes from capital gains. Furthermore, he has warned that federal economic policies under President Donald Trump may lead to a potential $16 billion reduction in state revenues in future years.

Enrollment Freeze and Funding Cuts

As part of the budget adjustment measures, Governor Newsom intends to implement a freeze on enrollment for Medi-Cal, the state’s Medicaid program, specifically targeting low-income adults without legal status beginning in 2026. Current enrollees will remain unaffected, and children will not be impacted by this freeze. However, adults enrolled in the program with “unsatisfactory immigration status” will be required to pay a $100 monthly premium starting in 2027.

These proposed changes are forecasted to save the state approximately $5.4 billion by the fiscal year 2028-2029. This comes in response to the Medi-Cal expansion that has already exceeded initial budget expectations, costing $2.7 billion more than anticipated, with over 1.6 million undocumented individuals currently enrolled.

Political Reaction and Budget Cuts

Reactions to Newsom’s budget proposals have been mixed. Democratic State Senator Dave Cortese has publicly opposed changes affecting low-status immigrants, reiterating California’s commitment to its immigrant population. Conversely, Republican leaders have criticized the governor’s explanations regarding the budget crisis, with some labeling them as attempts at “finger-pointing.”

Additionally, Newsom’s budget proposal outlines significant cuts to higher education funding. While the proposed cuts to the University of California (UC) and California State University (CSU) systems were initially severe, reductions have been scaled back. The funding cut for the UC system has decreased from $397 million to $130 million, and the CSU budget cut went from $375 million to $144 million, representing a 3% reduction for both systems.

Federal funding reductions have directly affected educational institutions across California, leading to operational hiring freezes and more severe austerity measures. Despite the improved budget outlook, UC President Michael V. Drake and CSU Chancellor Mildred Garcia have voiced ongoing concerns about future funding needs amidst rising operational costs.

Future Legislative Efforts

As the state navigates budget challenges, discussions surrounding new legislative initiatives are underway. One such proposal is California Senate Bill 829, aimed at establishing a state scientific research institute intended to enhance California’s research capabilities. This bill reflects ongoing discussions on how the state can leverage its resources to adapt to the current economic climate.

The California legislature will ultimately need to finalize the budget by June 30, 2025, as the governor and lawmakers continue to strategize how best to balance the budget while addressing the state’s pressing needs.

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